We enter Monday Night Football sitting 20–21 overall, and tonight’s matchup gives us a great chance to close the week strong. It’s the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals, a classic AFC North clash — physical, gritty, and usually decided in the trenches.
Let’s start with the total, set at 42.5. Both teams have struggled mightily to generate offense this season.
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Pittsburgh ranks 30th in total offense
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Cincinnati ranks 32nd — dead last in the league
Neither team has been efficient on early downs, and both tend to rely on defense and field position to stay competitive. The Steelers have gone Under in five of their last six games against AFC opponents and four of their last five divisional matchups.
Cincinnati’s defense has allowed points, but mostly in late-game situations — not enough consistent offense to carry a game Over. Add in the cool October weather and the way these two grind it out, and this sets up perfectly for an Under 42.5 type of game.
Pick: Under 42.5 — Confidence: Medium
Now, let’s talk about the side — our Top Play of the Night. The Steelers come in as 5.5-point favorites, and the historical trends are heavily in their favor.
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Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs Cincinnati
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15-5 straight up in the last 20 meetings
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10-2 straight up in their last 12 trips to Cincinnati
That’s long-term control. The Bengals’ offense has fallen apart, ranking last in yards and 31st in scoring. They’re also 1-4 straight up in their last five, while the Steelers have found ways to win ugly, just like they always do under Mike Tomlin.
Look for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to carry the workload, while Pittsburgh’s defense pressures Cincinnati into mistakes. Even if this game stays close early, the Steelers’ physicality should take over late.
This sets up as a perfect bounce-back spot for Pittsburgh — a team that’s learned how to win ugly and grind out results. I like the Steelers to control tempo and pull away in the second half.
Top Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 — Confidence: Medium-High
Recap:
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Total: Under 42.5 (Confidence: Medium)
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Side: Steelers -5.5 (Confidence: Medium-High)**
We’re sitting 20–21 on the season, ready to finish the week with a W. Stick with discipline, play the matchup, and let’s cash these tickets.
