It’s Monday Night Football, and we’ve got a perfect two-game slate to wrap up Week 7 with discipline and focus. These are the kinds of games that separate sharp bettors from the crowd—prime-time matchups with clear data, consistent trends, and defined game identities.
Let’s break down both games and get to our Top Play of the Night.
Total Pick: Texans–Seahawks Under 41 — Confidence: Medium-High
This one fits the Under blueprint to perfection.
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Houston ranks 3rd in total defense and has allowed just 8 total touchdowns through six games.
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Seattle ranks top-10 in offense, but they play methodical, clock-burning football.
The Texans have leaned Under in five of their last six, and their October totals have been some of the lowest-scoring in the league. Seattle’s last five Monday appearances? Also Under.
Neither team plays fast, both tackle well, and both struggle to finish red-zone trips with touchdowns. That’s a recipe for drives stalling inside the 30 and turning into field goals.
This projects like a 20–17 kind of game—physical, slow-paced, and dictated by defense.
Play: Texans–Seahawks Under 41 — Confidence: Medium-High.
Side Pick (Top Play of the Night): Detroit Lions -4.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Confidence: Medium-High
Now here’s the one you circle.
Detroit is top-12 on both sides of the ball, but more importantly, they’ve been a juggernaut at home. Jared Goff has been precise, their offensive line has been elite, and their defense tightens up in the red zone.
Tampa Bay is solid, but their offense relies heavily on big plays. Against this Lions secondary, that’s not going to be easy.
Key angles:
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Lions are 13-3 SU in their last 16 home games.
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They’ve covered 5 of their last 6 vs NFC South teams.
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Detroit averages 28+ points per game at Ford Field.
The Buccaneers can hang early, but Detroit’s trench dominance and third-down execution should pull them away in the second half. Expect the Lions to handle business and continue their home surge.
Play: Detroit Lions -4.5 — Confidence: Medium-High (Top Play of the Night).
Recap:
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Texans–Seahawks Under 41 — Confidence: Medium-High
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Lions -4.5 vs Buccaneers — Confidence: Medium-High (Top Play of the Night)
Detroit’s home form and Seattle’s tempo give us two sharp angles to close Week 7. Stay consistent, play smart, and remember—discipline beats emotion every time.
Good luck tonight, and as always—let’s cash these tickets!
