Last week was one of those “hold your breath and grind” kind of weeks. We finished with 10 correct out of 16 picks, scored 77 total points, and that keeps us sitting 5th overall in the league standings with a season total of 531 points. Not bad—but we’re still chasing that top spot, and Week 7 looks like a slate full of opportunities to climb. Let’s break down the card, top to bottom, straight-up office-pool style.
Safest Picks (Top Tier)
At the top of the board, I’m rolling with the Kansas City Chiefs. Arrowhead in primetime is always a tough place to play, and the Chiefs’ offense has been one of the most efficient units in the league. Las Vegas simply doesn’t have the defensive answers to slow down Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. As long as Kansas City takes care of the football, this one shouldn’t be close.
Next up, the Denver Broncos. Their defense is flat-out nasty—top five in both yards allowed and scoring—and they get a New York Giants team that’s been awful on the road. Denver wins by controlling the line of scrimmage, leaning on that pass rush, and forcing the Giants into long third downs.
At number thirteen, I like the New England Patriots. This is a classic Belichick game. The Titans just don’t have the offensive weapons to threaten a disciplined New England defense, and the Patriots’ offense has been quietly efficient. Expect a field-position game, but one the Pats control throughout.
At twelve, give me the Green Bay Packers. Their defense has been one of the most consistent in football, and Arizona simply can’t match up talent-for-talent. Green Bay’s pass rush and ball control should wear the Cardinals down over four quarters.
Rounding out the top tier, I’m sticking with the Detroit Lions. They’re balanced on both sides of the ball, Jared Goff is playing sharp football, and that home dome advantage gives them a fast-track edge. When the Lions get rolling, they can bury you before halftime—and they tend to do exactly that at Ford Field.
Solid Picks (Middle Tier)
The Pittsburgh Steelers slide in next. Say what you want about their offense, but Mike Tomlin has these guys ready every week, especially against division rivals. They’ve dominated Cincinnati for years, and I don’t see that changing with the Bengals still searching for consistency on both sides of the ball.
At number nine, I’ve got the Chicago Bears. It’s been ugly at times, but the Bears are finding an identity—running the football, playing physical, and protecting home turf. They’ve got the matchup edge in the trenches this week, and if they avoid turnovers, they’ll grind one out.
The Los Angeles Rams come in at eight. Sean McVay has this team trending up again. The Rams’ passing attack is sharp, their defensive front is generating pressure, and Jacksonville just hasn’t shown the ability to win these road matchups. This is a business-trip win for LA.
Number seven goes to the Seattle Seahawks. They’ve got a clear offensive edge, and playing in front of that home crowd always gives them a bump. Houston’s defense might keep it close early, but Seattle’s balance should take over late.
At six, I’m rolling with the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re battle-tested and seem to win every close one. Minnesota has talent, but the Eagles’ ability to run the ball and dominate time of possession gives them the upper hand.
And rounding out this middle tier, the Los Angeles Chargers at five. They’ve been inconsistent, but this is the type of matchup where their offense can open up. If they get early-down success and keep the pocket clean, they’ll score enough to win.
Toss-Up Tier (Lower Confidence)
At four, I’m giving the Atlanta Falcons a puncher’s chance. Their defense has quietly been elite—number one in total yards allowed—and they’re catching San Francisco at the right time. This feels like one of those “grind it out and steal it late” kind of games.
At three, I’m taking the Dallas Cowboys. High-risk, high-reward game here, but if Dak Prescott plays clean football, Dallas has the weapons to pull off the upset. Expect a shootout, and don’t be surprised if the Cowboys find a way late.
At two, the Cleveland Browns. Their defense has been outstanding, and they’re going up against a Miami team that’s living off tempo and big plays. Cleveland can slow this game down, control the line, and walk away with a close win.
Finally, at one point, I’ve got the New York Jets. Yeah, this one’s risky—but the Jets are due for something to break their way. They’re at home, they’ve got enough pieces on defense, and if they just play disciplined football, they’ve got a shot to squeak this one out.
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Final Thought
The goal every week isn’t perfection—it’s steady, disciplined progress. Ten wins last week keeps us in striking range, and the structure of this card gives us a great chance to move up. Remember, it’s about stacking good decisions, not chasing results. Stick with your process, stay patient, and play the long game. Let’s have a strong Week 7, move up that leaderboard, and keep our eyes on the prize.
