March Madness might be in full swing, but there’s still plenty of value on the NBA hardwood—and tonight’s slate gives us a few matchups worth zooming in on. We’re coming off a slightly disappointing 1-for-3 night on our March 20 picks, but that just fuels the fire for a bounce-back Friday. The data still tells the story, and we’ve done our homework to give you three carefully selected prop bets with value built in.
Tonight’s focus lands on two promising matchups: the Orlando Magic vs. Washington Wizards and the Pistons vs. Mavericks. The Wizards are without key bigs, and it’s created a soft interior for rebounders and facilitators to feast. On the other side, Cade Cunningham continues to be a stat-stuffing machine for Detroit, even in tough matchups. Let’s break down our top three NBA prop bets for March 21 and why the over is where the value lies.
🏀 Top NBA Prop Bets for March 21, 2025
1. Paolo Banchero – Over 7.5 Rebounds vs. Wizards
Banchero’s seasonal average hovers around 7.2 RPG, but recently he’s been attacking the glass harder. He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games and is projected to snag around 8.9 rebounds tonight. Washington is thin on the front line, and with one of the worst team rebound rates in the league, this sets up nicely for Paolo to have a strong night on the boards.
2. Franz Wagner – Over 4.5 Assists vs. Wizards
Wagner has become more of a playmaker lately, dishing out 5+ assists in four of his last six games. He’s averaging 4.7 APG this season and should thrive tonight against a poor defensive team like the Wizards. With transition opportunities and weak perimeter resistance, our models show him with a solid 5.5 assists projection. There’s a 55% hit rate on this one—solid value for a high-IQ player.
3. Cade Cunningham – Over 5.5 Rebounds vs. Mavericks
Cade’s pulling down boards at a 6.1 RPG clip this season and has cleared this number in three of his last five games. He’s a sneaky-good rebounder for a guard, and with the Mavericks often collapsing their defense inside, Cade should find a few extra rebound opportunities on both ends of the floor.
