With the NBA Finals heating up, momentum and matchups are everything—and that applies just as much to prop betting as it does to the scoreboard. As the series intensifies, smart bettors are locking in on consistent player trends, recent performances, and usage shifts to find value. This is the perfect time to ride player props where confidence and opportunity collide. We’re dialed in on the data, looking for sharp edges across points, assists, and combo plays.
Let’s start with a quick look at how we did yesterday. We went 2 for 3 on our player props.
✅ Chet Holmgren hit the over 14.5 points with exactly 15.
✅ T.J. McConnell stayed under 5.5 rebounds + assists with just 4.
❌ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander came up just short on his OVER 13.5 rebounds + assists with 13. A strong showing overall—and we’re back today with another three-pack of high-value picks.
Today’s Picks:
Aaron Nesmith over 12.5 Points vs Oklahoma City Thunder
We’re leaning into Nesmith today. He’s gone over this number in 2 of his last 3 games, and while his season average is just 5.1, his increased role in this series is hard to ignore. He’s taking more shots and showing confidence beyond the arc. Worth the play at home.
Jalen Williams over 5 Assists at Indiana Pacers
Williams has hit or pushed this number in 2 of his last 3 games and is averaging 5.3 dimes per game this season. He continues to be a key playmaker in this offense, especially in transition. In a high-paced game, he should find plenty of assist opportunities.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 12.5 Rebounds + Assists at Indiana Pacers
Shai just missed this line last time, landing on 13 against a tough defense. Still, he’s gone over in 3 of his last 5 and is averaging 11.4 combined this season. The volume is there, and with the series tightening up, expect another monster effort from OKC’s leader.
Final Thoughts:
These NBA prop bets are backed by strong trends and favorable matchups, making them worth considering for your wagers. Whether you’re betting on FanDuel, DraftKings, PrizePicks, Underdog, Sleeper, or BetMGM, these plays offer great value based on recent data. Bet smart and enjoy the game!
