Total Pick: Under 44.5 (Confidence: Medium)
This total looks a little high when you dig into the numbers.
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The Chargers’ defense ranks 7th in total yards allowed (301.7 per game) and 6th against the pass, giving up just 177.5 yards per game through the air.
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The Vikings’ defense ranks 6th overall (289.8 yards allowed) and 2nd against the pass (157.6 yards).
Both defenses are top-tier against the pass and limit explosive plays. Combine that with two offenses that struggle with consistency — Minnesota ranks 25th in total offense, while the Chargers can go cold for long stretches — and the math points toward a lower-scoring game.
The trends back it up:
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Under is 5–0 in the Vikings’ last 5 games vs AFC West teams.
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Under is 4–1 in the last 5 meetings between these two clubs.
Expect a lot of field goals and a slow tempo. Lean: Under 44.5 (Medium confidence).
Side Pick: Vikings +3 (Confidence: Medium-Low)
This one’s tougher to call, but the value leans toward the underdog. Minnesota has been competitive in almost every game and holds a 5–1 ATS record in their last six vs the Chargers. They’ve also gone 4–2 straight up in that span.
The Chargers are a talented team but inconsistent — just 1–4 ATS in their last five games overall, and 4–8 ATS in their last 12 in October.
The Vikings’ defense should be able to hang around, and if they can force a turnover or two, that +3 could come into play late.
Lean: Vikings +3 (Medium-Low confidence)
Recap
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Total: Under 44.5 (Medium)
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Side: Vikings +3 (Medium-Low)
Expect a defensive tone throughout, with long drives, limited explosive plays, and possibly a late field goal deciding it. This one feels more like a grinder than a shootout.
Good luck, and let’s cash these tickets.
