Hey team, Coach Bob here from Hot Streak Picks — and Week 9 is where things really start to separate the contenders from the pretenders. By now, we’ve got clear trends, reliable data, and teams showing us exactly who they are. That means it’s prime time for smart bettors to cash in on the edges that casual fans overlook.
I’ve got four ATS and total plays this week that stand out based on offensive consistency, defensive matchups, and situational momentum. Three are strong plays backed by clear statistical advantages — and one is my Top Play of the Week that checks every box for a confident wager. Let’s break them down.
#4 – CHI–CIN Over 52.5 Total
Both these teams have been on an Over tear. Cincinnati has gone Over in 6 of their last 7 games, while Chicago’s road games have gone Over in 4 of their last 5. The Bengals’ offense has quietly found rhythm, putting up 25.8 points per game, and the Bears are averaging 26.5 points while rushing for over 120 yards per contest.
Neither defense has been able to stop explosive plays — both rank near the bottom in pass coverage efficiency. Combine that with aggressive red-zone play-calling on both sides, and this has “shootout” written all over it.
Pick: Over 52.5
Confidence: High
#3 – San Francisco 49ers -2.5 vs New York Giants
The 49ers have been one of the NFL’s most reliable teams when facing weaker competition. They’re 10–2 straight up in November and have covered 5 of their last 6 against the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Giants continue to struggle protecting their quarterback, allowing one of the league’s highest sack rates.
San Francisco’s defense ranks top 10 in yards allowed and points per play, while the Giants’ offense sits near the bottom in both. Add in the Niners’ physical ground game and their ability to control early downs, and you’ve got the perfect recipe for a businesslike cover.
Pick: 49ers -2.5
Confidence: Medium-High
#2 – KC–BUF Over 52.5 Total
Every time these two teams meet, fireworks follow. The Over has hit in 6 of their last 8 head-to-head matchups, and both offenses are back in rhythm after midseason adjustments. Kansas City averages 27.6 points per game with one of the league’s top passing units, while Buffalo sits just behind at 25.4 points per game with the second-best rushing attack in the AFC.
Defensively, neither side has been dominant — both allow over 340 total yards per game — and both quarterbacks are built for the big stage. Expect big plays, quick scores, and at least one 30-point performance here.
Pick: Over 52.5
Confidence: High
#1 – Detroit Lions -8.5 vs Minnesota Vikings (Top Play of the Week)
This is the game that jumps off the board. The Lions are one of the most complete teams in football — top 10 in offense, defense, and turnover differential. They’re putting up 29 points per game while holding opponents under 19, and they’ve covered in 5 of their last 6.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is struggling to find balance. They’re averaging under 95 rushing yards per game and giving up over 130 on the ground, which plays directly into Detroit’s strength. The Lions’ offensive line has been dominant, and Jared Goff continues to protect the football at home.
This is a divisional matchup, but don’t let that scare you — Detroit has won and covered convincingly against Minnesota in recent meetings. At home, with momentum and a trench advantage, this is my Top Play of the Week.
Pick: Lions -8.5
Confidence: Very High
Final Thoughts
Week 9 sets up perfectly for a profitable run. The Bears–Bengals and Chiefs–Bills totals offer fast-paced, high-scoring potential, while the 49ers and Lions bring reliable, physical football that wins against the number.
Play disciplined, manage your units, and remember — it’s not about guessing; it’s about reading the game the right way. Join us inside the Hot Streak Picks Skool community for live updates, late injury moves, and bonus Sunday plays. Let’s keep the streak hot.
