As we head into Week 5 of the NFL season, every pick — and every point — matters. Last week, our office pool card finished 10-6 with 83 total points, good enough for third place in the standings. That brings our season total to 417 points, keeping us firmly in the hunt as we approach the midseason stretch. This is where smart, disciplined play separates the contenders from the pack.
The key to winning office pools isn’t just about picking winners — it’s about ranking them properly. A 14-point game carries nearly as much weight as three or four lower-ranked picks combined. That’s why we approach each matchup with a mix of stats, trends, and matchup analysis to identify where the biggest edges lie.
Below is a complete game-by-game confidence ranking for Week 5, from 14 points down to 1, along with analysis on why each team earns its spot.
Safest Picks (14–9 points)
14) Detroit Lions (-10.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit continues to prove they’re one of the most balanced teams in the league, winning 17 of their last 20 games and going 9-1 on the road. Their offense ranks among the top three in both yards and touchdowns, and they’ve shown the ability to win in multiple ways — from pounding the ground game to stretching the field vertically. Cincinnati’s defense, on the other hand, has struggled to stop the run or defend big plays. This is a clear mismatch, and Detroit should control this game from start to finish.
13) Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) over Tennessee Titans
The Titans enter Week 5 with one of the least effective offenses in football, sitting near the bottom in total yards and points per game. Arizona has quietly built one of the league’s most opportunistic defenses, especially against AFC opponents, and they’ve been particularly tough at home. If the Cardinals establish a lead early, Tennessee doesn’t have the offensive firepower to mount a comeback.
12) Buffalo Bills (-7.5) over New England Patriots
Buffalo leads the league in total offense, averaging over 420 yards per game and scoring 12 touchdowns through four weeks. At home, they’ve been nearly unbeatable, and their offensive depth makes them extremely difficult to game-plan against. New England’s offense lacks explosiveness, and against a Bills defense that tightens up in the red zone, this one could get out of hand by the fourth quarter.
11) Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) over Las Vegas Raiders
The Colts rank third in total offense and are trending upward, while the Raiders are 3-14 straight up in their last 17 games. Indianapolis can move the ball through the air or on the ground, and their balance should put consistent pressure on a Raiders defense that struggles on third down. With home-field advantage, the Colts should have little trouble pulling away in the second half.
10) Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) over San Francisco 49ers
The Rams’ top-five offense faces a 49ers team that’s dealing with short-week preparation and lingering injuries. Los Angeles has been sharp on both sides of the ball and has the firepower to stretch San Francisco’s secondary. If the Rams jump out early, the 49ers may not have the offensive rhythm to respond.
9) Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) over Denver Broncos
Philadelphia hasn’t lost at home in over a year, and their balanced offense combined with a top-tier defense makes them a tough matchup for any opponent. Denver has struggled to find consistency, particularly on offense, and facing this Eagles defense on the road is a tall order. Philadelphia should control both lines of scrimmage and wear the Broncos down over four quarters.
Solid Picks (8–5 points)
8) Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) over Houston Texans
Baltimore has dominated this series, winning eight straight against Houston. The Ravens’ defense has steadily improved and now ranks in the top half of the league in yards allowed. Houston’s offense has been inconsistent, and their inability to finish drives could be costly on the road. Baltimore should dictate tempo and grind out a win.
7) Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) over Washington Commanders
This matchup could turn into a shootout, but the Chargers’ passing game and home-field advantage give them the edge. Washington’s defense has shown vulnerability against the pass, and Justin Herbert and company have the tools to exploit that weakness. Expect a competitive game, but Los Angeles has the higher ceiling.
6) Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle’s home-field advantage is one of the best in football, and they’ve consistently found ways to win at Lumen Field. Tampa Bay can keep this close, but Seattle’s run game and crowd noise should tilt the balance in their favor down the stretch.
5) Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Patrick Mahomes has dominated Jacksonville, and the Chiefs have won eight straight in this series. While the Jaguars’ defense has been solid, Kansas City’s offense is due for a breakout performance. Expect Mahomes to make key plays late to seal a road win on Monday night.
Toss-Up Tier (4–1 points)
4) Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns
Cleveland boasts the league’s best defense, but Minnesota’s offense gives them a slight edge at home. This could be a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair, and turnovers may ultimately decide it. The Vikings are the pick, but confidence is limited.
3) Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) over New York Jets
Dallas has the better offense and more reliable quarterback play, but the Jets’ volatility makes them a dangerous underdog. The Cowboys should win, but this is a matchup where one or two big plays could flip the outcome.
2) Carolina Panthers (-1) over Miami Dolphins
The loss of Tyreek Hill significantly changes Miami’s offensive identity, and that opens the door for Carolina at home. If the Panthers can control time of possession and limit turnovers, they have a real shot to pull this out.
1) New York Giants (+1) over New Orleans Saints
This is the biggest gamble of the week. The Giants showed life behind rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart last week, and that spark could carry over. New Orleans is vulnerable at home, and New York has enough momentum to make this a live underdog spot.
Final Thoughts
Week 5 is loaded with intriguing matchups, but the key to winning your office pool is stacking points where the mismatches are most pronounced. Teams like the Lions, Bills, and Eagles bring elite balance and consistency, while the Cardinals and Colts face overmatched opponents. On the other end, games like Giants-Saints and Panthers-Dolphins come down to momentum and injury impacts, so they belong near the bottom of the board.
Play smart, trust the data, and remember that office pools are marathons, not sprints. Another strong week here could put us in striking distance of the top spot — and from there, it’s anyone’s game. Good luck with your picks this week, and let’s keep climbing the leaderboard.
