We’re rolling into Week 5 of the NFL season with a solid 16–11 record, and now’s the time when the real separation begins. This is where sharp bettors pull away from the pack — when the stats have settled, the trends are clear, and the best plays start to stand out. And that’s exactly what we’ve got this week.
I’ve broken down the board and narrowed it down to two strong ATS bets and two totals plays that I believe give us the best chance to cash tickets this weekend. All four plays are backed by matchup data, trends, and situational edges — and one of them stands out as our Top Play of the Week.
Let’s dive in.
1. Arizona Cardinals -8.5 vs. Tennessee Titans (Top Play of the Week)
We’re starting with my absolute favorite play on the board. The Tennessee Titans are in freefall — and this matchup is tailor-made for Arizona to dominate.
Tennessee ranks 31st in total offense (222.3 YPG) and has scored just three offensive touchdowns all season. They’re 0-10 straight up and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games, and things don’t get any better on the road, where they’re 0-5 SU in their last five.
The Cardinals’ defense has been elite against the run, forcing teams into third-and-long situations and limiting big plays. They’re also 7-0 ATS against AFC opponents, and this is a classic spot where their front seven should take over. Add in home-field advantage and a balanced offense, and you’ve got all the ingredients for a double-digit win.
The Titans simply don’t have the offensive firepower to hang around. Arizona should dictate the pace, win the line-of-scrimmage battle, and pull away early.
Coach Bob’s Pick: Cardinals -8.5 – ⭐️ Confidence: High (Top Play of the Week)
2. Detroit Lions -10.5 at Cincinnati Bengals
I don’t often lay double digits on the road, but this Detroit team is built to cover big numbers. They’re 17-3 in their last 20 games overall and 9-1 in their last 10 on the road. Their offense is among the best in football, ranking #3 in total yards (394.3) and scoring 13 touchdowns through four weeks.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are a mess. They’re dead last in total offense (220.7 YPG) and giving up 359.7 yards per game on defense. They’re struggling to protect the quarterback, and their run defense is allowing opponents to stay ahead of the chains.
Detroit is one of the most balanced teams in the league. They control time of possession, win the turnover battle, and wear opponents down. If they build an early lead — and I expect they will — this could turn into a two-score game by the third quarter.
Coach Bob’s Pick: Lions -10.5 – ⭐️ Confidence: Medium-High
3. Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots – Over 49
Let’s shift to totals, and we’ll start in Buffalo. The Bills have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging over 420 yards per game and scoring 12 touchdowns already this season. Josh Allen is spreading the ball around with ease, and this team is almost unstoppable at home.
The Over has hit in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games, and 4 of the last 5 matchups against New England. The Patriots’ defense has struggled against top-tier offenses, and their offense — while inconsistent — is capable of putting up enough points in garbage time to help push this total over.
Buffalo could score 30+ by itself, and it may not take much from the Patriots to get us over the number. The pace, offensive efficiency, and matchup history all point in one direction.
Coach Bob’s Pick: Over 49 – ⭐️ Confidence: Medium-High
4. Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts – Over 48
This one has sneaky shootout written all over it. The Over has hit in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams, and both defenses have vulnerabilities that the other offense can exploit.
The Colts boast the #2 offense in the NFL (418.7 YPG) and are trending up every week. They’re finishing drives and putting points on the board. Las Vegas hasn’t been winning games, but they’re moving the ball through the air and have enough weapons to trade scores.
The Raiders’ defense is allowing 351 yards per game, and Indianapolis has averaged over 28 points per game at home. If the Raiders can contribute even 20+ points, this total should sail past 48.
Coach Bob’s Pick: Over 48 – ⭐️ Confidence: Medium
Final Thoughts
Week 5 gives us four strong plays across both spreads and totals. Arizona is my Top Play of the Week, with a massive mismatch against Tennessee that checks every box for a blowout win. Detroit’s balance and dominance on the road make them a rare double-digit favorite worth backing. And both totals — Bills vs. Patriots Over 49 and Raiders vs. Colts Over 48 — set up as high-scoring matchups backed by stats, pace, and history.
We’re sitting at 16–11 on the season, and this is the kind of board that can push us into a heater. Stay disciplined, trust the data, and let’s cash some tickets.
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