Last week, I went 11–5 in my office pool, scoring 96 points and landing in 2nd place in the league standings. That pushes my season total up to 334, and the momentum is building. Now it’s time to look ahead to Week 4. With offense and defense rankings giving us a clearer picture of the matchups, plus the betting trends, I’ll walk through my card from 16 down to 1, grouped into Safest, Solid, and Toss-Up picks.
Safest Picks (Top Tier)
16. Buffalo over New Orleans
Buffalo leads the NFL in total offense at 420 yards per game and 12 touchdowns. At home, they’ve been unbeatable, riding a 12-game winning streak. The Saints, ranked 19th in offense and middle of the pack on defense, simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace.
15. Chargers over Giants
The Chargers rank 6th in offense and face a Giants defense ranked 31st in yards allowed. This mismatch is as clear as it gets, and Los Angeles has owned this head-to-head.
14. Detroit over Cleveland
Detroit’s offense is 3rd in the league and has produced 13 touchdowns through three weeks. The Browns do bring the top-ranked defense, but they’re buried at 22nd in offense and averaging under 300 yards per game. Detroit’s balance should prevail at home.
13. Green Bay over Dallas
Green Bay’s defense is elite, ranked 3rd overall, and they’ve dominated the Cowboys historically, winning five straight matchups. Dallas has a top-5 offense, but their defense ranks 30th, making them too one-dimensional.
12. San Francisco over Jacksonville
The 49ers have the 7th-ranked offense and 4th-ranked defense, making them one of the most balanced teams in football. Jacksonville is solid offensively but has struggled against NFC West opponents, and San Fran has won the last five in this series.
11. Rams over Colts
This one is close statistically, with the Colts ranked 2nd in offense and 7th in defense, while the Rams come in 5th and 5th. What tips it to Los Angeles is their ability to win tight games at home and their strong head-to-head record.
Solid Picks (Middle Tier)
10. Philadelphia over Tampa Bay
The Eagles are 9–0 straight up in their last nine, and even though their offense ranks just 27th, they’ve been efficient in the red zone. Tampa Bay is middle of the pack offensively and defensively, but Philadelphia’s overall momentum makes them the pick.
9. Denver over Cincinnati
Cincinnati ranks dead last in offense and 25th in defense, a brutal combination. Denver’s defense sits 19th, but the Broncos are undefeated at home in their last six. It’s not flashy, but it’s enough to get the nod.
8. New England over Carolina
The Patriots rank 11th in offense and 17th in defense, while Carolina sits in the bottom third on both sides of the ball. New England has been poor at home in recent years, but against this opponent they still hold the edge.
7. Miami over Jets
Miami has struggled with consistency, but history matters here: the Dolphins have won nine straight home games against the Jets. Both offenses are bottom 10, but Miami is simply stronger at home.
6. Minnesota over Pittsburgh
The Vikings’ defense ranks 6th in the league, while Pittsburgh sits 30th in total offense. Even with Minnesota’s offense ranked 28th, this is a mismatch that favors the Vikings to grind out a road win.
Toss-Up Picks (Lowest Confidence)
5. Kansas City over Baltimore
Normally the Chiefs would be a safe pick, but they rank just 17th in offense. Baltimore’s defense has been the worst in the NFL, though, allowing over 400 yards per game. That alone makes Kansas City worth five points.
4. Raiders over Chicago
Las Vegas’ offense is mediocre, but Chicago’s defense is near the bottom at 29th, giving the Raiders just enough of an edge to hold home field.
3. Washington over Atlanta
Washington has won consistently against Atlanta, but the Falcons’ defense ranks 2nd overall and could flip the script. This one stays low in the order.
2. Seattle over Arizona
Seattle has dominated this series, winning seven straight against Arizona. Still, the Seahawks’ offense ranks 18th and their defense 14th, making this closer than history suggests.
1. Houston over Tennessee
The Texans sit 29th in offense, but the Titans rank dead last at 31st. This matchup is as ugly as it gets, and that’s why it’s the lowest confidence pick on the board.
Closing Thoughts
Week 4 sets up with a few clear mismatches at the top—Buffalo, the Chargers, and Detroit all hold heavy statistical edges, while Green Bay’s defense should be the difference against Dallas. The middle tier is built on trust in recent form and home-field advantages, while the toss-ups feature flawed teams that are tough to back with confidence.
The strategy this week is simple: ride the elite offenses and balanced teams in the top tier, use the solid tier to pad points, and don’t stress too much about the bottom—those games are coin flips. I’m sitting in second place, but with this card, the push to the top is right in front of us.
Coach Bob signing off—let’s make Week 4 count and keep stacking winning weeks.
