The NFL season is rolling into Week 2, and with it comes another slate of games filled with betting opportunities. Every week is a chance to separate sharp bettors from the casuals, and this week’s card is no different. I’ve narrowed the board down to four plays against the spread and totals that stand out above the rest. Whether it’s matchup dominance, recent ATS records, or clear offensive mismatches, these are the spots I’m most confident in.
And at the top of the list? A pick I’m calling my Top Play of the Week — a matchup with blowout potential and a team perfectly positioned to deliver.
Let’s dive into the breakdown.
#1. Ravens -12.5 vs Browns – Top Play of the Week
This one checks every box for me. Baltimore comes in off a tough loss to Buffalo, and now they return home for their opener at M&T Bank Stadium — a spot they’ve historically dominated.
The numbers tell the story:
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Cleveland is 0-7 straight up in their last 7 games.
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The Browns are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on the road.
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Baltimore is 14-3 SU in their last 17 home games against Cleveland, and they’ve covered in 5 of their last 7 overall.
This is classic bounce-back territory. The Ravens have a strong defense that thrives at home and an offense that can take over once they build a lead. The Browns don’t have the firepower to match, especially on the road. Combine the matchup history with Baltimore’s urgency after last week’s loss, and this has blowout written all over it.
If you’re looking for just one play this week to anchor your card, make it the Ravens -12.5.
#2. Cowboys -6 vs Giants
When you talk about ownership in a rivalry, you have to mention the Cowboys over the Giants. Dallas has won eight straight games against New York, covering in most of those with ease.
The Giants are in disarray:
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1-12 SU in their last 13 games.
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2-11 ATS in that span.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are trending up. Their defense is among the league’s best, and Dak Prescott has enough weapons to keep the scoreboard moving. At just -6, this line doesn’t fully reflect how much better Dallas is right now.
Simply put, this is another week where Dallas asserts dominance. Expect another double-digit win.
#3. Rams vs Titans – Over 42
Sometimes the best value isn’t in a side but in the total, and that’s the case here. The number is set at 42, which feels too low given how these teams have matched up historically.
The key stats:
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4 of the last 5 meetings have gone Over.
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The Titans’ defense has struggled badly, allowing chunk plays through the air and on the ground.
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Rams’ road games tend to trend higher-scoring, and their offense is clicking.
Even a game like 27–17 or 28–20 cashes the ticket here. With the way the Titans’ defense is giving up points and the Rams’ ability to score in different ways, the Over is the right call.
#4. Cowboys vs Giants – Over 44.5
Yes, we’re doubling down on this matchup — not just Dallas covering, but the total going Over. This rivalry has been a reliable Over in recent seasons:
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The Over has hit in 5 straight meetings in Dallas.
The Cowboys’ offense should dictate the pace here. Their balanced attack puts pressure on the Giants’ defense, and even a modest performance from New York pushes this over the line.
Think of this one as correlated with our Cowboys -6 pick. If Dallas covers, it’s likely because the offense is humming, which means points on the board.
Final Thoughts
This week’s top 4 ATS and total plays bring together the best of both worlds: two dominant favorites with matchup edges (Ravens, Cowboys) and two totals with strong historical and statistical backing (Rams-Titans Over, Cowboys-Giants Over).
The Ravens -12.5 is my Top Play of the Week — a bounce-back spot at home where everything points to a double-digit win. The Cowboys are also a strong side, while the two totals add balance to the card.
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