Monday Night Football always brings a different kind of energy. The audience is bigger, the stakes feel higher, and every play has a spotlight on it. Tonight, we’ve got the Las Vegas Raiders traveling to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, and the numbers give us a clear picture on how to attack this matchup from a betting standpoint.
Let’s start with the total, which comes in at 50.5. That’s a meaningful number — not high enough to scare you, but high enough to make you think twice. The model projections land at Dallas 27.5 and Vegas 23.4, putting us right around 50 points, which means the books nailed this line.
Dallas projects more total yards across the board — more passing, more rushing, and more touchdowns — but Vegas isn’t out of range. The Raiders have shown they can score, especially when playing from behind, and that’s where a potential Over sweat could come from. Their second-half offense tends to open up, and Dallas has had multiple games this season where they give up late production.
However, 50.5 is still a sharp number, and nothing here suggests a clean slam dunk. That’s why the Over is only a lean, and only in small size.
Total Pick: Over 50.5
Confidence: Medium-Low
Now let’s get into the stronger position — the side.
The Cowboys are sitting at -3.5, and based on the matchup profiles, this is one of the cleanest favorites on the entire Week 11 board. Here are the key reasons:
• Dallas projects more passing yards
• Dallas projects more rushing yards
• Dallas projects more total TDs
• Dallas grades higher in overall offensive efficiency
The Raiders have a solid scoring projection, but they trail in every core category. When both teams are projected for similar turnover rates, the edge goes to the team with superior consistency — and that’s Dallas.
The Cowboys have been reliable when favored, especially in prime time, while the Raiders have struggled to control games against strong fronts. If Dallas wins early downs — and the projections say they will — this sets up perfectly for a cover.
Side Pick (Top Play of the Night): Cowboys -3.5
Confidence: Medium-High
Recap:
• Over 50.5 — Medium-Low
• Cowboys -3.5 — Medium-High (Top Play of the Night)
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