If I’m being honest, the best play in this game isn’t the side — it’s the total.
The number is sitting around 44.5, and this matchup has quietly been one of the more reliable UNDER series in the NFC West. Seattle has gone UNDER in five of the last six meetings against the Rams, and those games tend to follow the same script: long drives, physical defense, and a lot of field-position football.
Yes, the Rams have shown some recent OVER trends, but that’s more about game flow than matchup. When these two teams play each other, explosive plays get limited, and red-zone possessions often turn into field goals instead of touchdowns. Add in a December divisional setting and a short week, and everything points toward a slower, tighter game.
This isn’t a game where I’m expecting either team to pull away. I’m expecting both coaches to be conservative early, protect the football, and force the other side to earn every yard. That’s why the UNDER 44.5 is the Pick of the Game.
Confidence: Medium-High
Now, as for the side, I’d keep it lighter.
If I had to choose, I’d give a slight edge to Seattle. They’re at home, they’ve been solid straight up, and this is a meaningful division game under the lights. But the Rams’ ATS history in this building is real, and that keeps me from going heavy on the side.
So for me, this game is about discipline.
Best play: UNDER 44.5.
Side lean: Seahawks -1.5, but lightly.
If you’re only playing one angle, stick with the total and let the game come to you.
