The 2025 NFL season is right around the corner—and we’ve taken it to the next level. Our AI simulation ran every game of the entire season and projected final records for all 32 teams. Now, we’re comparing those projections to DraftKings’ official win total lines to help you spot the biggest value bets before the season kicks off.

From likely playoff contenders to surprise breakout teams (and a few major letdowns), here are the 10 most important win totals to keep an eye on—and which sides we’re betting with confidence.

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✅ Best Value Picks (According to Our Model)

TeamDraftKings LineOur PredictionValue
Bills11.517–0+5.5
Chiefs11.516–1+4.5
Chargers9.513–4+3.5
Commanders9.512–5+2.5
Ravens11.514–3+2.5

⚠️ Stay Away Picks

  • Eagles (11.5) – Our model has them right at 11 wins. Too close to call.

  • Lions (10.5) – They hit exactly 10 in our sim. No edge either way.

  • Texans (9.5) – Could go either way depending on divisional play.

💣 Biggest Under Alerts

  • Giants (6.5) – Our sim: 0–17

  • Browns (5.5) – Our sim: 1–16

  • Titans (5.5) – Our sim: 2–15

These are strong fade candidates. Don’t touch the over.

🏈 Don’t Just Bet Futures — We’ve Got Weekly Picks Too!

Want to win week after week this season? In addition to season-long projections, we also post weekly betting picks and survivor pool suggestions on the site.

👉 Visit hotstreakpicks.com every week for the latest NFL betting insights powered by AI.

Let’s cash this season—from Week 1 through the Super Bowl.

The 2025 NFL season is right around the corner—and we’ve taken it to the next level. Our AI simulation ran every game of the entire season and projected final records for all 32 teams. Now, we’re comparing those projections to DraftKings’ official win total lines to help you spot the biggest value bets before the season kicks off.

From likely playoff contenders to surprise breakout teams (and a few major letdowns), here are the 10 most important win totals to keep an eye on—and which sides we’re betting with confidence.

Top 10 NFL Win Totals vs. Our AI Projections

1. Buffalo Bills – Over 11.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 17–0

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 11.5

  • Our Take: No, they won’t go undefeated—but 13+ wins is realistic with their schedule and division. Even if they lose 3–4 games, you’re still comfortably cashing the Over.

2. Kansas City Chiefs – Over 11.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 16–1

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 11.5

  • Our Take: The Chiefs remain the gold standard. With a reloaded receiving core and Mahomes in MVP form, we see another dominant regular season.

3. Baltimore Ravens – Over 11.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 14–3

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 11.5

  • Our Take: Baltimore’s defense is elite and the offense is built to win now. This is a team that could contend for the #1 seed in the AFC.

4. Los Angeles Chargers – Over 9.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 13–4

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 9.5

  • Our Take: One of the biggest discrepancies on the board. Our AI loves the Chargers this year. New coaching, a healthy Herbert, and a manageable schedule make this a top-tier value bet.

5. Washington Commanders – Over 9.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 12–5

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 9.5

  • Our Take: One of the biggest surprise teams in our sim. With a revamped offense and underrated defense, Washington could steal the NFC East.

6. Philadelphia Eagles – Over 11.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 11–4

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 11.5

  • Our Take: This line is sharp. Our model has them right on the edge, making it a pass for us unless you have a strong lean.

7. Detroit Lions – Over 10.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 10–7

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 10.5

  • Our Take: Detroit’s win total is priced right. The team has talent, but the division is tricky. Slight lean Under, but we’re staying away.

8. Houston Texans – Over 9.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 9–8

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 9.5

  • Our Take: Another well-priced line. The Texans are on the rise, but our model sees a small lean to the Under.

9. Denver Broncos – Over 11.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 11–6

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 11.5

  • Our Take: The Broncos improve, but we’re not buying into a 12-win season just yet. Small value on the Under.

10. New York Giants – Over/Under 6.5 Wins

  • Our AI Prediction: 0–17

  • DraftKings Line: Over/Under 6.5

  • Our Take: Zero wins? Yep. Our AI predicts a collapse for the G-Men. Even if they manage a few upsets, 7 wins is a stretch. Slam the Under.

✅ Best Value Picks (According to Our Model)

TeamDraftKings LineOur PredictionValue
Bills11.517–0+5.5
Chiefs11.516–1+4.5
Chargers9.513–4+3.5
Commanders9.512–5+2.5
Ravens11.514–3+2.5

⚠️ Stay Away Picks

  • Eagles (11.5) – Our model has them right at 11 wins. Too close to call.

  • Lions (10.5) – They hit exactly 10 in our sim. No edge either way.

  • Texans (9.5) – Could go either way depending on divisional play.

💣 Biggest Under Alerts

  • Giants (6.5) – Our sim: 0–17

  • Browns (5.5) – Our sim: 1–16

  • Titans (5.5) – Our sim: 2–15

AFC Breakdown (AI Predictions)

AFC East:

  • Buffalo Bills: 17-0 🔥

  • New England Patriots: 9-8

  • Miami Dolphins: 8-9

  • New York Jets: 2-15 😬
    Buffalo dominates, and the Jets… don’t.

AFC North:

  • Baltimore Ravens: 14-3 💪

  • Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7

  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-9

  • Cleveland Browns: 1-16 🚨
    The Ravens are back on top. Cleveland bottoms out in a shocker.

AFC South:

  • Houston Texans: 9-8

  • Colts & Jaguars: 7-10 each

  • Tennessee Titans: 2-15
    A competitive division, but no team breaks away.

AFC West:

  • Kansas City Chiefs: 16-1 🏆

  • Los Angeles Chargers: 13-4

  • Denver Broncos: 11-6

  • Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11
    Three playoff teams? Don’t be surprised.

NFC Breakdown (AI Predictions)

NFC East:

  • Washington Commanders: 12-5 🚨

  • Philadelphia Eagles: 11-4

  • Dallas Cowboys: 6-11

  • New York Giants: 0-17 😳
    Washington shocks the world. Giants make the wrong kind of history.

NFC North:

  • Detroit Lions: 10-7

  • Green Bay Packers: 9-8

  • Minnesota Vikings: 8-9

  • Chicago Bears: 7-10
    Balanced but unremarkable.

NFC South:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11-6

  • Carolina Panthers: 6-11

  • New Orleans Saints: 5-12

  • Atlanta Falcons: 4-13
    Tampa pulls away while the rest flounder.

NFC West:

  • Los Angeles Rams: 13-4

  • San Francisco 49ers: 13-4

  • Seattle Seahawks: 8-9

  • Arizona Cardinals: 7-10
    Rams and Niners are powerhouses, but only one will win the division.

🏈 Don’t Just Bet Futures — We’ve Got Weekly Picks Too!

Want to win week after week this season? In addition to season-long projections, we also post weekly betting picks and survivor pool suggestions on the site.

👉 Visit hotstreakpicks.com every week for the latest NFL betting insights powered by AI.

Let’s cash this season—from Week 1 through the Super Bowl.