The Midwest Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is loaded with powerhouse teams, intriguing matchups, and potential Cinderella stories. Houston, the No. 1 seed, is one of the top defensive teams in the country, while Kentucky, Tennessee, and Purdue look poised for deep runs. However, as always, March Madness is full of surprises. Let’s break down each first-round matchup and predict who will advance.
(1) Houston vs. (16) SIU Edwardsville
Houston enters the tournament as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest, thanks to a dominant defense, elite rebounding, and explosive athleticism. The Cougars have consistently been one of the top defensive teams in the country under head coach Kelvin Sampson, and they rarely let weaker teams hang around.
SIU Edwardsville, the Ohio Valley Conference champion, earned their spot in the Big Dance with a great season. However, they simply don’t have the depth, size, or scoring ability to compete with Houston. Expect Houston to smother SIUE’s offense, forcing turnovers and bad shots throughout the game.
Prediction: Houston wins by a large margin.
(8) Gonzaga (-6.5) vs. (9) Georgia
Gonzaga is a perennial tournament powerhouse, known for making deep runs in March. Even though this year’s team doesn’t have the same firepower as past squads, they still play a fast-paced, high-efficiency offense.
Georgia, on the other hand, is a gritty, defense-first team that rebounds well and plays physically inside. If they can slow down Gonzaga’s pace and force the Bulldogs into a half-court game, they have a chance to make this one interesting.
However, Gonzaga’s experience and ability to execute in close games should be the difference here.
Prediction: Gonzaga edges out Georgia in a close contest.
(5) Clemson (-22.5) vs. (12) Seton Hall
Clemson enters the tournament as a No. 5 seed, boasting a balanced offense, tough defense, and solid inside scoring. They aren’t a flashy team, but they grind out wins by playing smart, efficient basketball.
Seton Hall, a battle-tested team from the Big East, is one of the most dangerous 12-seeds in the tournament. Their defensive ability and experience against top-tier competition make them a potential upset candidate.
While Clemson should win, Seton Hall’s ability to defend the three-point line and slow down the pace could make this game closer than the 22.5-point spread suggests.
Prediction: Clemson wins comfortably but doesn’t cover the spread.
(4) Purdue (-8.5) vs. (13) High Point
Purdue is led by one of the most dominant frontcourts in the nation. Their ability to control the paint, rebound effectively, and block shots makes them a nightmare for smaller teams.
High Point, while an impressive mid-major squad, doesn’t have the size or depth to deal with Purdue’s big men. If Purdue plays to their strengths and feeds the post, this game should be over by halftime.
Prediction: Purdue wins easily.
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Texas/Xavier
Illinois is one of the most dangerous No. 6 seeds in the tournament. They play an efficient offense, spread the floor well, and have multiple scoring threats.
However, they will have to prepare for the winner of the Texas/Xavier play-in game. Texas brings athleticism and elite guard play, while Xavier is a scrappy team with a strong inside presence.
If Illinois can dictate the tempo and control the boards, they should advance, but this could be a tricky game depending on the matchup.
Prediction: Illinois advances.
(3) Kentucky (-10.5) vs. (14) Troy
Kentucky is one of the most athletic and deep teams in the tournament, featuring NBA-caliber talent, strong defensive pressure, and great perimeter shooting. When they are clicking, they can blow teams out quickly.
Troy is a solid team that plays hard-nosed basketball, but they simply don’t have the firepower to keep up with Kentucky over 40 minutes.
Prediction: Kentucky wins big.
(7) UCLA (-4.5) vs. (10) Utah State
This 7 vs. 10 matchup could be one of the best games of the first round. UCLA is a well-balanced team with tournament experience, while Utah State has the potential to pull off an upset if they get hot from beyond the arc.
UCLA will try to control the pace and limit Utah State’s outside shooting, while Utah State will look to push the tempo and get open shots in transition.
This one could go either way, but UCLA’s defensive ability and experience in big games should help them survive.
Prediction: UCLA wins in a close game.
(2) Tennessee (-18.5) vs. (15) Wofford
Tennessee is a physical, defensive-minded team that plays tough, aggressive basketball. Their size and rebounding ability allow them to dominate smaller teams, and their balanced scoring attack makes them difficult to defend.
Wofford, a solid mid-major team, is known for shooting the three-ball well. However, their lack of size and athleticism will likely be a major problem against Tennessee’s physical defense and ability to control the paint.
Unless Tennessee has a terrible shooting night, this game should be over quickly.
Prediction: Tennessee wins easily.
Final Thoughts on the Midwest Region
- Biggest potential first-round upset: Utah State over UCLA (10 over 7)
- Most exciting game to watch: Utah State vs. UCLA
- Team with the easiest path to the next round: Houston
- Best dark horse pick: Illinois (6-seed)
The Midwest Region features several intriguing matchups and potential surprises. Houston, Kentucky, and Tennessee should advance comfortably, but Clemson, Illinois, and UCLA could be tested in the first round.
With high-powered offenses, elite defenses, and strong frontcourts, this region could produce one of the most unpredictable Sweet 16 matchups in the tournament. Let the madness begin!
