The East Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is loaded with powerhouse programs, intriguing matchups, and potential Cinderella stories. Let’s break down each first-round game and predict who will advance to the next round.
(1) Duke vs. (16) American/Mount St. Mary’s
Duke enters March Madness as the No. 1 seed in the East, thanks to a dominant season led by freshman superstar Cooper Flagg. The Blue Devils boast one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, with elite scorers, depth, and a strong defensive presence.
Their opponent will be determined by the First Four matchup between American and Mount St. Mary’s, two scrappy teams that fought their way into the tournament. While upsets have happened before, it’s hard to see either team giving Duke a real challenge. Expect Duke to assert its dominance early and win by a comfortable margin.
Prediction: Duke wins convincingly.
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Baylor (-1.5)
This game is one of the most evenly matched battles of the first round. Mississippi State brings a tough, physical defense, while Baylor has a more experienced squad that thrives in high-pressure situations. The Bears have tournament experience, having won the national championship in 2021, and they are favored by 1.5 points in what should be a nail-biter.
Mississippi State’s ability to control the boards could make this game close, but Baylor’s superior perimeter shooting and defensive flexibility give them a slight edge. Expect this one to come down to the final minutes.
Prediction: Baylor wins in a tight contest.
(5) Oregon (-6.5) vs. (12) Liberty
Oregon enters the tournament as a dangerous No. 5 seed, known for its strong defense and transition game. The Ducks have one of the best shot-blocking frontcourts in the tournament, making it difficult for teams to score inside.
However, Liberty is a classic 12-seed upset candidate, largely due to their three-point shooting. The Flames can light it up from beyond the arc, and if they get hot, they could take control of the game.
Historically, 12 vs. 5 matchups are known for upsets, but Liberty comes up just short in this one.
Prediction: Oregon narrowly escapes with a win.
(4) Arizona (-13.5) vs. (13) Akron
Arizona boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the tournament, led by a mix of experienced upperclassmen and dynamic freshmen. They play at a fast pace and have multiple scoring threats that can stretch defenses.
Akron, a mid-major powerhouse in the MAC, has played well this season, but they lack the overall talent and depth to keep up with Arizona for 40 minutes. While they might hang around in the first half, expect the Wildcats to pull away late and cover the spread.
Prediction: Arizona cruises to the next round.
(6) BYU (-2.5) vs. (11) VCU
This is another matchup that could go down to the wire. BYU enters as a No. 6 seed, but they haven’t been as dominant as other teams in their seed range. They rely on efficient scoring and smart ball movement, but sometimes struggle against teams that apply defensive pressure.
VCU brings its signature Havoc defense—a relentless, full-court press aimed at forcing turnovers. If BYU can control the tempo and push the pace, they’ll have a chance to dictate the game. However, if they struggle against VCU’s pressure, this could turn into a grind-it-out, low-scoring battle that favors the Rams.
Prediction: VCU grinds out a hard-fought victory.
(3) Wisconsin (-16.5) vs. (14) Montana
Wisconsin is built for the grind of March, relying on strong defense, rebounding, and disciplined half-court offense. The Badgers have multiple scoring threats and one of the best rebounding margins in the tournament.
Montana, on the other hand, lacks the size and depth to keep up with Wisconsin’s physical play. While they might make things interesting early, Wisconsin should have no trouble controlling the game and advancing.
Prediction: Wisconsin advances with ease.
(7) Saint Mary’s (-4.5) vs. (10) Vanderbilt
Saint Mary’s earned its No. 7 seed by playing a disciplined, defensive brand of basketball. They are efficient offensively and limit their opponents’ possessions with smart, controlled play.
However, Vanderbilt is a live underdog in this matchup. The Commodores come from the rugged SEC, where they’ve faced top-tier competition all season. Their ability to push the pace and get to the free-throw line could be a major factor.
Saint Mary’s is favored by 4.5 points, and we believe their defense gets the job done.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s secures the win.
(2) Alabama (-22.5) vs. (15) Robert Morris
Alabama is one of the most high-powered offensive teams in the tournament, playing at one of the fastest paces in the nation. Their three-point shooting and transition attack overwhelm most opponents.
Robert Morris has had a great season just to get here, but they don’t have the depth, size, or athleticism to keep up with Alabama. The 22.5-point spread is high, and while Robert Morris could cover, Alabama should dominate from start to finish.
Prediction: Alabama wins big.
Final Thoughts on the East Region
- Biggest potential first-round upset: VCU over BYU (11 over 6)
- Most exciting game to watch: Mississippi State vs. Baylor
- Team with the easiest path to the next round: Duke
- Best dark horse pick: Vanderbilt (10-seed)
The East Region is filled with intriguing matchups and teams capable of deep runs. As always, March Madness is unpredictable, and a Cinderella team could emerge. But for now, expect the powerhouses like Duke, Arizona, and Alabama to dominate while Liberty and Vanderbilt could be bracket-busters.
