The NFL season is heating up as Week 4 rolls in, and the lines are sharp, the matchups are tight, and the office pools and sportsbooks are buzzing. Every week is about finding those angles where the numbers and the trends come together, and this week, four plays stand out above the rest.
We’ve got a mix of favorites and totals, including one game that screams mismatch, another that’s shaping up to be a defensive grind, and a high-scoring shootout waiting to happen. Let’s dive into our Top 4 ATS plays for Week 4, ranked from #4 down to the #1 best bet of the week.
#4. Buffalo Bills -16.5 vs New Orleans Saints
The Bills come into Week 4 with the league’s number-one offense, averaging over 420 yards per game, and they haven’t lost at home in their last 12 outings. They’re not just winning, they’re winning big.
New Orleans, meanwhile, has been stuck in reverse. The Saints are 0–7 straight up in their last seven and just 1–5 against the spread over that stretch. Their offense ranks in the bottom half of the league, and against a Buffalo defense that’s also top-10 in yards allowed, this looks like a nightmare matchup.
Yes, laying 16.5 points is never comfortable, but if there’s ever a spot to do it, this is it. Buffalo is a safe Survivor pick and a strong ATS lean.
#3. Rams vs Colts – Over 49.5
On paper, this game has shootout written all over it. The Colts bring the league’s second-ranked offense into the matchup, averaging 418 yards per game and punching in 10 touchdowns already. The Rams aren’t far behind with the fifth-ranked offense and plenty of weapons on their side.
The defenses here are solid (both inside the top 10), but history doesn’t lie—these two have combined to go Over in seven straight meetings. When two efficient offenses meet in a controlled environment, the Over is the sharper play. Expect fireworks in the mid-to-high 20s on both sides.
#2. Vikings vs Steelers – Under 41
This is the polar opposite of the Colts-Rams matchup. Minnesota ranks 28th in total offense, and Pittsburgh sits even lower at 30th. Both teams are struggling to move the ball, but Minnesota has a top-6 defense that keeps opponents in check.
The Under has cashed in 5 of the last 6 games when these teams meet in Pittsburgh, and with both squads trending toward slow starts and ugly offensive execution, this looks like another low-scoring grind. Think 20–13, maybe 17–14.
#1. Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 vs New York Giants
This is the Top Play of the Week, and for good reason. The Chargers have the sixth-ranked offense in the league, moving the ball efficiently and scoring consistently. On the other side, the Giants have the NFL’s 31st-ranked defense, allowing over 400 yards a game and struggling to stop anyone.
The head-to-head history leans heavy LA: the Chargers are 5–0 straight up and against the spread in their last five meetings with New York. Meanwhile, the Giants have dropped 14 of their last 15 games straight up and are just 3–12 ATS over that stretch.
This is as lopsided as it gets. LA has the better quarterback, the better roster, and the better coaching staff. Even on the road, the Chargers should handle business here. This is the bet to build your Week 4 ticket around.
Final Thoughts
Four plays stand out for Week 4:
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Buffalo -16.5 over the Saints
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Rams/Colts Over 49.5
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Vikings/Steelers Under 41
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Chargers -6.5 over Giants (Top Play of the Week)
Buffalo is the safe Survivor play, but the Chargers are the highest confidence ATS bet. For more weekly analysis, picks, and office pool strategy, join the Skool community at HotStreakPicks.com and get locked in with Coach Bob’s full card every week.
